I know this post is old but the problem can still bite, like in my case, so is there any way to debug/trace this error so we can find the root cause? I've already checked the Update Installed Detection part and everything seems to be in order. It'd be helpful if there's some "debug mode" that can be enabled in the updater to get to the specifics of the error.
In my case, the updater downloads the file but error occurs at the point where it tries to install the update. The strange thing is, this only happens on a recent build, e.g. when upgrading from version x.x.x.2919 to x.x.x.292x. Upgrading from x.x.x.2912 has no error, though. The main installer has the OLDPRODUCTS workaround for the fourth part of the version number, so this should be covered already. So I'm not sure what else is triggering this.
UPDATE1: Set loglevel to "Debug|Trace|Error" in Updater and it spit out some cryptic messages in updater.log, including the ff. error, of w/c I can't seem to find the meaning.
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Updater wizard ended. Return code: 1
Updater finished. Mode: 6. Return code: -536870900
Update installation failed LastError: 0xE000000C
UPDATE2: Can't find this error in MS lookup tool
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# No results found for hex 0xe000000c / decimal -536870900
# as an HRESULT: Severity: FAILURE (1), FACILITY_NULL (0x0), Code 0xc
# for hex 0xc / decimal 12
ERROR_INVALID_ACCESS winerror.h
# The access code is invalid.
# 1 matches found for "E000000C"
UPDATE3: The log file specified in the /L*VX switch in the command line under the Update Installer tab of the Updates Configuration project seem to have caused the error. The filepath starts w/ %LocalAppData% - it seems the updater services has trouble resolving this when updating w/o elevation. Using something else like %TEMP% or %ALLUSERSPROFILE% seem to have no issue. Hope this helps some poor fellow out there and hoping also that updater logs are less cryptic than the above.